ICT Daily Bias: How to Determine It

Daily/Weekly Bias Determination & Trade Journaling

Treat bias as a testable hypothesis, not a one-time prediction. Here is a repeatable framework to determine your daily and weekly ICT bias — and journal it so the market corrects you.

What is Daily Bias in ICT?

Daily Bias is your directional expectation for the trading day, derived from where price is most likely to be drawn next. In ICT terms, that magnet is the Draw on Liquidity.

It is not a guess about the close. It is a structured hypothesis about which pool of liquidity the algorithm is reaching for, and from which key level it should reverse.

The discipline that separates intermediate traders from beginners is this: bias is testable. You define it, attach conditions, then let the session confirm or invalidate it. Your Trading Journal is what closes that loop.

A Step-by-Step Guide to Weekly Bias Analysis

Weekly Bias frames the entire week and constrains your daily reads. Build it before the week opens, then refine it daily.

Step 1: Analyze the Weekly Chart and Institutional Order Flow

Start on the weekly. Mark the recent swing highs and lows that define External Range Liquidity — the obvious stops resting above old highs and below old lows.

Read order flow honestly. Are you seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows, or a clean shift in structure? An unmitigated weekly Order Block or a large Fair Value Gap (FVG) tells you where institutional interest likely sits.

Bullish order flow: expect price to seek buy-side liquidity above prior highs.
Bearish order flow: expect a reach for sell-side liquidity below prior lows.
Consolidation: expect a sweep of one side before the real expansion.

Step 2: Identify the Draw on Liquidity

The Draw on Liquidity is the single most important output of your weekly read. Ask one question: what is the obvious target the market is incentivised to run?

Usually it is External Range Liquidity — old weekly highs or lows. Once tagged, watch for the displacement back into the range that exposes Internal Range Liquidity, such as a fresh FVG or Order Block to trade from.

Step 3: Factor in Major Economic Events

Open the Economic Calendar before you finalise anything. High-impact releases — rate decisions, CPI, NFP — are the catalysts institutions use to run liquidity.

Note the day and time of each event. A bias that ignores a red-folder release on Wednesday is fragile. Often the manipulation leg fires precisely on that news.

Translating Weekly to Daily Bias: A Pre-Market Checklist

Each morning, convert the weekly thesis into a concrete daily plan with a short, repeatable checklist.

Analyzing the Previous Day's High and Low (PDH/PDL)

Mark the Previous Day High and Previous Day Low (PDH/PDL). These are immediate liquidity targets and the most reliable intraday reference points.

If weekly draw is higher and price is sitting below PDH, your daily bias leans toward taking PDH liquidity. If draw is lower, PDL becomes the magnet. Alignment between weekly draw and the nearer PDH/PDL is your highest-confidence setup.

Identifying Key Levels from the New York Midnight Open

Plot the New York Midnight Open (00:00 ET). Price trading below it skews you bearish for the day; trading above it skews you bullish. It is a clean equilibrium reference.

Combine it with the prior day's range. A discount entry below midnight open with a higher draw, or a premium entry above it with a lower draw, gives you a defined location to engage.

Confirming Bias with the Power of 3 (AMD)

The Power of 3 — Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution (AMD) — is your intraday confirmation engine. Expect the daily candle to build in three acts.

Accumulation: a tight range, often during the Asian session.
Manipulation: a stop raid against your bias, typically in the London Session or early New York Session.
Distribution: the real expansion toward your Draw on Liquidity.

When the manipulation leg sweeps the side opposite your draw and then displaces, your bias is confirmed rather than assumed.

The Role of Journaling in Validating Your Bias

A bias you never review is just an opinion. Journaling turns each call into data, so the market — not your ego — grades you.

The journal is a feedback loop. Over 30 to 50 trades, patterns emerge: maybe your weekly draw reads are accurate but your entries are early, or your bias is right except around news.

Without this loop you repeat the same errors. With it, you compound small corrections into a measurable edge.

What to Track in Your ICT Trading Journal

Structure every entry in three phases so you can separate a good process from a lucky outcome.

Pre-Trade: Your Bias Hypothesis

Before the session, write your hypothesis as a falsifiable statement. Record the Weekly Bias, the Daily Bias, the Draw on Liquidity, and the news on the calendar.

Crucially, log your invalidation: the exact condition that would prove the bias wrong. "Bullish toward PDH; invalid below PDL" is testable. "I think it goes up" is not.

Execution: The Entry Model and Rationale

Document the entry model you used — the FVG, Order Block, or breaker you entered from, and the timeframe. Note the session and the time of entry.

Capture your rationale in one line: what confirmed the manipulation was complete and distribution had begun. Screenshots of the setup at entry are non-negotiable.

Post-Trade: The Outcome and Lessons Learned

Record the result, but grade the process separately. A loss with a correct bias and disciplined entry is a good trade; a win against your plan is a warning.

End with one specific lesson. Was the bias correct? Was the entry mistimed? Did news invalidate the read? Tag it so you can sort patterns later.

Common Pitfalls in Bias Determination and How to Avoid Them

Treating bias as certainty: hold it as a hypothesis with a clear invalidation, not a prediction you defend.
Ignoring the calendar: a red-folder event can override structure — always check it first.
Confusing internal and external liquidity: know whether price is reaching for External Range Liquidity or reacting at Internal Range Liquidity.
Forcing the daily against the weekly: when the two conflict, stand aside or trade smaller.
Skipping the journal: no feedback loop means no improvement, only repetition.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

How to determine daily bias in ICT?

Start with the weekly chart to find the Draw on Liquidity, then translate it into a daily plan. Mark PDH/PDL and the New York Midnight Open, check the Economic Calendar, and wait for the Power of 3 manipulation leg to sweep liquidity against your read before confirming the direction toward your target.

What if the daily bias is wrong?

That is expected — bias is a hypothesis. If price breaks your predefined invalidation level, the bias is dead; stop looking for entries in that direction and stand aside. Log it in your journal, note what the market did instead, and learn whether the error was the read itself, the timing, or an ignored news event.

How long does it take to get good at determining bias?

Most traders need several months of consistent, journaled reps before bias becomes intuitive. The accelerant is volume of reviewed trades, not screen time. Forty to fifty fully documented setups with honest post-trade grading teaches you more than a year of unrecorded watching.

Stop guessing your daily bias

LiquidityScan scans the higher-timeframe draw on liquidity and flags the institutional bias for you in real time — so your pre-market checklist is done before the open.